A shrinking U.S. cattle herd, driven in part by persistent drought and the New World screwworm, has forced the industry to rely more heavily on imported beef to keep up with strong demand.
It’s a trend that’s been building for the past three years. The latest USDA projections show beef imports continuing to rise and exports decline through 2027.
The U.S. will import 6.059 billion pounds of beef by the end of this year, up 12.5% from last year, according to projections.
The increase in imports has angered one of Trump's most reliable political constituencies: ranchers.
When the Trump administration announced in October 2025 that it will increase beef imports from Argentina — a country whose president, Javier Milei, is an ally of President Trump — rancher groups, including the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and the Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America, criticized the decision.
Many ranchers argue that more imports reduce their profits without bringing down beef prices, which have climbed to record highs. They say, along with industry analysts, that demand for beef remains strong because consumers are willing to pay higher prices. Some also believe the policy conflicts with Trump's "America First" agenda.
Under trade policies announced on Feb. 6, Argentina can export four times more select beef to the U.S than in previous years. Even so, Argentina is not among the five largest suppliers of beef to the U.S.
Of the top five exporters, Brazil has recorded some of the largest increases. U.S. beef imports from Brazil rose from 690.5 million pounds in 2024 to 931.4 million pounds in 2025.
Some critics argue that the increase benefits JBS, the Brazilian meatpacking giant that controls about one-fifth of U.S. beef processing and is one of the country's Big Four meatpackers. JBS was the largest donor to Trump's inaugural committee, and media reports have said that Joesley Batista, one of the company's owners, helped broker U.S.-Brazil trade discussions.
Earlier this year, the administration opened an investigation into the Big Four — JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods and National Beef — over alleged price manipulation. The administration has yet to publicly release any findings.
Trump’s tariff policy has also had a major impact on beef exports, particularly to China. U.S. beef exports to China fell from 474.4 million pounds in 2024 to 154.2 million pounds in 2025.
Data Harvest (formerly Graphic of the Week) is Investigate Midwest’s way of making complex agricultural data easy to understand. Through engaging graphics, charts, and maps, we break down key trends to help readers quickly grasp the forces shaping farming, food systems, and rural communities. Want us to explore other data trends? Let us know here.
